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Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Yes
No

$42.3M Vol

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Yes
No

$35.5M Vol

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

December 31
April 30

$6.3M Vol4 Markets

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

December 31, 2026
November 30

$3.8M Vol6 Markets

US strike on Mexico by...?

December 31
January 31

$3.5M Vol3 Markets

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Yes
No

$3.4M Vol

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

December 31
March 31

$3.1M Vol3 Markets

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Yes
No

$2.8M Vol

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

December 31, 2026
December 31, 2025

$2.7M Vol3 Markets

Ukraine election held by...?

December 31, 2026
December 31, 2025

$2.5M Vol3 Markets

Ukraine election called by...?

December 31, 2026
December 31, 2025

$1.8M Vol5 Markets

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

8
9

$1.7M Vol16 Markets

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

Yes
No

$1.2M Vol

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

December 31
September 30

$661.6K Vol6 Markets

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Germany
Saudi Arabia

$659.7K Vol26 Markets

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Yes
No

$436.2K Vol

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 31
October 31

$265.9K Vol4 Markets

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Yes
No

$258.6K Vol

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Yes
No

$244.7K Vol

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Yes
No

$212.9K Vol