Polymarket

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase52.0%Fuel duty increase45.5%Wealth tax19.5%Land value tax19.5%

0%20%40%60%

CGT increase52.0%Fuel duty increase45.5%Wealth tax19.5%Land value tax19.5%

$568.2 Vol

$348.2 Vol
52% 18%
$155.2 Vol
46% 5%
$34.8 Vol
20% 2%
$30 Vol
20% 31%

Rules

Polymarket

The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:

Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home.
Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty.
CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax.

A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count.

For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase.

If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.