Polymarket

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in September?

Below 4.52%20.5%Below 4.46%16.5%Below 4.49%12.5%Below 4.43%11.0%

0%25%50%75%

Below 4.52%20.5%Below 4.46%16.5%Below 4.49%12.5%Below 4.43%11.0%

$16K Vol

$2.8K Vol
21%
$471.2 Vol
17%
$1K Vol
13%
$404.7 Vol
11%
$2.7K Vol
8%
$1.8K Vol
6%
$2.2K Vol
3%
$2.1K Vol
3%
$2.5K Vol
1%

Rules

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).