Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

Lula70.5%Flavio Bolsonaro29.5%Ronaldo Caiado0.1%Zema0.1%

0%20%40%60%80%

Lula70.5%Flavio Bolsonaro29.5%Ronaldo Caiado0.1%Zema0.1%

$127.8K Vol

$57.7K Vol
71% 6%
$51K Vol
31% 8%
$4.1K Vol
<1%
$546 Vol
<1%
$4.5K Vol
<1%
$1.2K Vol
<1%
$6.9K Vol
<1%
$477 Vol
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$287.9 Vol
<1%
$296 Vol
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$296 Vol
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$316 Vol
<1%
$259.3 Vol
<1%

Rules

Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Resolution Sourcedadosabertos.tse.jus.br